Diesel and alternative drive locomotives - Global Market Trends 2020

In 2019, the worldwide market for new diesel and alternative traction locomotives was at an extremely low level of approx. EUR 2.75 billion. The OEM market for diesel locomotives has recently come under severe pressure for a variety of reasons. In countries with significant fleets such as China (increasing electrification of the network) and the USA (new operating concept of freight railways allows fleet reduction), deliveries have slumped massively. In Europe (EU goal of climate neutrality by 2050), operators are increasingly refraining from long-term investments in diesel locomotives. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are reinforcing the trend. Unlike passenger rail transport, stimulus packages are not supporting rail freight transport.

Based on current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled “Diesel and alternative drive locomotives – Global market trends 2020”, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel and alternative drive locomotives. Based on the successful study “Diesel locomotives – Global market trends” from 2017, in the past few years SCI Verkehr has verified the central input data and optimized its forecasting methodology. We have reviewed and updated all chapters of the preceding study. Moreover, this MultiClient Study is the first to also analyse explicitly the status quo as well as the expected development of alternative drive locomotives worldwide.

In concrete terms, this multi-client market study of diesel and alternative drive locomotive includes

• A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel and alternative drive locomotives including an in-depth analysis of all relevant markets of the individual countries
• A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential
• An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of diesel and alternative drive locomotives in the individual regions
• Analysis of market shares of manufacturers as well as a forecast of new procurement and after-sales volumes of diesel and alternative drive locomotives (in EUR) for each region up to 2024
• A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel and alternative drive locomotives in diagram form
• Forecasts designed under a COVID-19 pandemic scenario, which, differentiated by region, represents the most probable scenario from the point of view of SCI Verkehr
• Brief description of important current and planned procurement projects