Freight Rail - Current Developments of the COVID-19 Crisis in Europe

The study examines in three scenarios how transport performance in Europe and in the three largest rail freight markets Germany, France and Poland will develop in the coming years due to the crisis. The V, L and U scenarios described in the study differ in their assumptions regarding the duration of the state of emergency and the duration of the economic recovery phase. Depending on the scenario, a decline in rail freight transport performance of between 13% and 21% is expected for Germany in 2020. The pre-crisis level of 2019 will be reached again between 2021 and 2030, depending on the scenario.

Based on the scenarios „Lockdowns return“, „Disrupted markets“ and „Rapid recovery“ , SCI Verkehr derives the effects on transport companies, vehicle owners and the rail vehicle industry.

In concrete terms, this MultiClient study includes:

• Overview of the European transport market in rail freight, including pre-corona forecast and 3 new scenarios up to 2025
• Detailed analysis of 3 focus markets (Germany, France, Poland)
• Overview of the current development of the corona crisis with demand data and company news
• Effects of the crisis on operators, vehicle owners and industry with a brief overview of the markets and players as well as scenarios for the development of the market volume in the vehicle industry
• Analysis of fleet stocks, market shares and future demand

The study is also available for passenger rail or as a complete study (passenger rail & rail freight).

If you have any further questions, please contact Ms. Lea Krause, l.krause@sci.de.