Supposedly stable economic situation in the railway industry: The sector is currently only slightly unsettled, positive expectations still prevail*

SCI/RAILINDEX I/2022

The ongoing global crisis mode with a never-ending pandemic, continued fragile supply chains and most recently a war on European soil: The burdens on companies in the rail industry are growing immensely. According to the top managers surveyed, however, this has only a minor impact on the business climate: the current SCI RAIL BUSINESS INDEX - a regular survey of the top managers of the global railway industry by the consulting firm SCI Verkehr - is only marginally down and continues to be at a high level.

The decisive factor for this is probably the period of the survey at the end of February, when the entrepreneurs surveyed expressed a quite surprisingly positive expectation of the general business development despite the already looming uncertainties of the geopolitical developments. Asked about the estimated order intake for 2022 and the medium-term future, the companies are unanimous: the majority of the sector expects even fuller order books. However, selected recent interviews from the sector show that supply chains are very largely disrupted due to the war in Ukraine and that prices for selected components are multiplying. This development is not adequately reflected here due to the time frame of the survey. [...] complete index see also adjacent pdf

*The survey was conducted between 22 and 28 February, so that the answers were given both before and after the start of the war. The assessments of the railway experts surveyed are correspondingly ambivalent.

The SCI GLOBAL RAIL INDEX is based on approximately 100 reports from representative companies in the global rail industry. The companies are regularly asked to assess their current business situation and their expectations for the coming six months. They can indicate their situation as "good", "satisfactory" or "poor" and their business expectations for the coming six months as "more favourable", "stable" or "less favourable". The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of the answers "good" and "bad", the balance value of the expectations is the difference between the percentages of the answers "more favourable" and "less favourable". The business climate is a transformed mean value from the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

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